2016 Election: Too Soon to Tell

by Isabel Braverman

November 3 marked Election Day this year, which means there is still a little less than a year left until the 2016 Presidential Election. There has already been three Republican debates and two Democratic debates. The poll numbers are coming in, and there are candidates at the top. But is all of that indicative of how the real numbers will play out? Can we predict who will be the chosen candidate for each party now? It seems the answer is, probably not.

According to this (excellent) article, the poll numbers right now don’t show the opinions of the vast majority of Republicans. So even though Donald Trump is leading the polls, it’s actually not showing what many Republicans are thinking. Good news!

There are still a lot of candidates (14) vying for the Republican nomination, and the Democrats are still down to only two choices, Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders (although Martin O’Malley still has a seat at the table, and many people are speculating he will run as Vice President). Let’s see who has dropped out. On the Republican side Bobby Jindal recently suspended his campaign on November 17, and Scott Walker also dropped. Good riddance! On the Democrat side, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee left, most likely due to their poor performance at the first Democratic debate.

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are scheduled to take place between February and June of 2016. Until then, it’s too soon to tell.